CEZ CEO, J.Mil, announced on Friday that CEZ should increase its domestic market share from 53% to 57%, based the supply contracts for 2003 concluded so far. Also, exports should increase from 12 TWh expected in 2002, to 16 TWh in 2003. CEZ also plans to cut domestic prices by approx. 5% to increase the pressure on its competitors in 2003. The dividend should reportedly rise from 2.5% of nominal share value in 2002 (implying gross dividend of CZK 2.5 per share) to 3-7% of the nominal value (implying gross dividend of CZK 3-7 per share).
We predict that domestic sales and profits will be pretty much unchanged (rising market share and volumes would be offset by the price cuts). A 4TWh rise in exports would add approx. CZK 2.2 bil. in sales and CZK 0.9 bil. on EBITDA level. A rising dividend was expected.
The Minister of Industry J.Rusnok said on Friday that a final decision related to CEZ privatization should be made soon (no further specification); reportedly, one of the options is to float the state's 67% stake on the PSE (source: CTK).
It is surprising that the decision on the privatization timing is to be made soon, as we expected that it would be made after the state energy policy is set, which should take approx. one year. As for the SPO, we believe it is very unlikely, as the selling price would be significantly lower than a sale to a strategic investor (overhang, no majority premium).
Jiri Soustruznik