Foreign trade brought another positive surprise, as industrial output did last week. Trade balance surplus rose from CZK 1.5bn last to year to CZK 10.6bn this August. Exports fell only by 8.8 percent, year-on-year, after decreasing by 19 percent in January-July. Seasonally adjusted figures say that exports grew by 4.4 percent compared to the previous months. On the other hand, imports keep falling with double-digit pace signaling weak domestic demand.
Rising trade balance surplus is likely to improve 3Q GDP figure taking the Czech economy farther north from recession. CNB’s interest rates should stay stable, unless the central bank decides to use rates to support FX interventions. However, it seems unlikely with current EURCZK level.