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Richmond Fed Index rebounds in June

Richmond Fed Index rebounds in June

29.6.2011 9:33

The Richmond Fed manufacturing index showed a nice rebound in June. The headline index rose from -6 to 3, while the consensus was looking for a more moderate recovery. The details show a significant improvement in shipments (-1 from -13), new orders (1 from -15) and capacity utilization (-2 from -12), while wages (9 from 6), vendor lead time (7 from 5) and order backlog (-16 from -19) showed a more moderate rebound. Number of employees (12 from 14) and average workweek (-5 from 0), on the contrary, deteriorated in June. Upward prices pressures eased further with both prices paid (4.82 from 6.12) and prices received (2.26 from 3.26) falling significantly, compared to the previous month. After the sharp loss of momentum in the previous months, this outcome suggests that the recovery might start soon, easing the concerns about the slowdown in growth.
Conference Board’s consumer confidence unexpectedly deteriorated in June, while the consensus was looking for a rebound after the sharp decline in the month before. In June, Conference Board’s consumer confidence fell from an upwardly revised 61.7 to 58.5, the lowest level in seven months. The details show that the weakening in sentiment was due to a decline in both the present situation (37.6 from 39.3) and expectations (72.4 from 76.70), and also the labour market differential weakened (from -37.8 to -38.6) in June. Consumers’ inflation expectations eased from 6.5% to 6.0% in June, but failed to support consumer sentiment. The outcome indicates that persistent weakness in the labour market is weighing on consumers’ sentiment.
In April, US S&P Case Shiller home prices fell less than expected compared to the previous month, but the March figure was downwardly revised. On a monthly basis, Case Shiller home prices fell by 0.09% M/M, while a decline by 0.20% M/M was expected. The annual figure, on the contrary, came out in line with expectations showing a drop in house prices by 3.96% Y/Y. This figure is slightly stronger compared to the previous months’ data as the pace of decline is slowing. Nevertheless, the data are rather outdated and therefore less important for markets.


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