The Czech crown strengthened on the second Greek bailout, but the EUR/CZK pair stays above 24.40 EUR/CZK. The Czech currency is typically the least sensitive to the volatility on EUR/USD and EUR/CHF and failed to track sharp gains of the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint.
Although today the koruna may continue to benefit from post-summit enthusiasm, we are hesitant to bet on more significant gains. Weaker figures from both US and euro zone could keep the bulls out of Central Europe from triggering longer term rally in Central Europe. Today the German Ifo should be the main highlight for the koruna.
We think EU leaders surprised on the positive side, coming with decisions that go further than most had expected. An agreement on new measures that should handle euro zone debt problems supported global risk appetite and the Polish zloty posted solid gains. The EUR/PLN cross rate edged lower to 3.98 EUR/PLN level.
Regarding the CHF/PLN currency pair, the zloty managed to revert a part of the recent losses and is currently trading at 3.35 CHF/PLN level. Let us remind that the last NBP’s Financial Stability Report of said that about 53% of mortgages in Poland is denominated in the Swiss franc. Hence, stronger franc makes instalments more expensive and increases credit risk related to housing loans. Nevertheless, the NBP said that this issue has not been too serious so far.
As far as today’s trading is concerned, the zloty could watch the result of Germany’s Ifo. Apart from that, echoes of yesterday’s Euro zone summit might influence the Polish currency as the analysis of the details of the EU debt agreement will still be the focus of markets.