KGHM’s management has raised its net profit guidance by 25% for fullyear 2012, pegging the target just below the market’s expectations and slightly above our forecast. The company now sees its bottom line at PLN 4.74bn in 2012 versus the previous expectation of PLN 3.8bn, the analysts’ consensus of PLN 4.8bn (Reuters) and our estimate of PLN 4.7bn. The company also raised its sales goal by 6% to PLN 20.6bn for full-year 2012, at the same time cutting its forecast for the average copper price to US$ 7,850/tonne from the previous US$ 8,000/tonne.
The management upgrade seems to be simply a technical matter. The new forecast is 1.1% above our forecast and 2% below the market consensus. The interesting point is that KGHM expects the copper price to decrease 2% from current levels, which demonstrates the caution of KGHM’s top brass. The company is expected to present an update on its Sierra Gorda operations in December and we see this as the biggest price-mover in the months ahead.