Polish retail sales below consensus

October retail sales dynamics came out somewhat weaker than consensus and our forecast. Sales edged up only slightly compared to September as the favorable calendar effect (two more working days compared to last year) turned out less supportive than forecasted. Sales dynamics in real terms moved into positive territory, but the figure remains weak and points to stagnation. October sales suggest consumer demand remains under pressure as inflation bites into wages and labor market situation deteriorates. Worth noticing is the sharp deceleration in sales dynamics of textiles and clothing (first negative real-term print since April 2010).

Poland, Retail sales, nominal terms (Oct): 3.3% y/y
Previous (Sep): 3.1% y/y
Consensus: 3.6% y/y, KBCS forecast: 3.8% y/y

Poland, Retail sales, real terms (Oct): 0.5% y/y
Previous (Sep): -0.4% y/y

• Retail sales dynamics in real terms accelerated in 6 out of 9 categories reported by Statistical Office, including:
  • motor vehicles (0.6%y/y in October vs. -6.8%y/y in September)
  • fuels (-0.9% vs. -2.4%)
  • food and beverages (-3.0% vs. -3.8%)
  • pharmaceuticals and cosmetics (4.3% vs. 2.7%).
• Retail sales dynamics in real terms slowed in 3 categories, including:
  • textiles and clothing (-0.2%y/y in October vs. 17.3%y/y in September)
  • newspapers, books and other sales (-17.2% vs. -15.6%)
  • furniture, RTV and household appliances (14.4% vs. 14.8%).