Czech central bankers continue to talk. The vice-governor Mojmir Hampl reiterated that with interest rates at technical zero the FX intervention remains the only monetary tool available. Nevertheless the koruna seems to be quite resilient to ongoing verbal interventions.
According to stress tests performed by CNB, Czech banking sector remains resilient to economic shocks. Under the main stress scenario, the capital adequacy would fall to 11% from 16.4%. The most adverse scenario that assumes deep decline in economic activity and a partial write-off of exposure to EU countries with debt above 60% GDP implies a shortfall of capital around 0.5% of GDP.
Today the regional focus will be on the NBP. Our opinion is that the two-day meeting of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) will culminate with a decision to cut rates by 25 basis points (bps), and we cannot completely rule out even a more aggressive easing by 50 bps. The central bank’s position on the latest GDP figures will be even more interesting than the voting itself, as the deceleration of Poland’s economic growth is stronger than expected and primarily based on domestic consumption and investment. Therefore we believe that the market will eagerly await the press conference, where Governor Belka is likely to suggest further rate cuts.