Deceuninck will publish its 1Q13 trading update on 14 May before market.
We believe the harsh winter weather has weighed on volumes, and we forecast a 6.0% decline in revenue to € 110.9m, which is slightly more conservative than the analyst consensus (-5.6% to € 111.4m).
Our -6% revenue trend forecast breaks down as follows:
- Volume -4.5% (consensus -4.0%)
- Price/mix -2.0% (consensus -1.9%)
- FX +0.5% (consensus +0.3%).
Deceuninck has notgiven a quantified guidance on 2013. We forecast a FY13 revenue of € 565.3m (+1.5% - CSS € 560.3m), REBITDA of € 51.1m (+2.3% - CSS € 49.3m) and a net profit of € 9.5m (CSS € 9.3m).
Deceuninck has probably been impacted by harsh winter weatherin Europe in 1Q13. We stick to our Accumulate rating and € 1.45 target price on the back of the reasonable valuation (EV/REBITDA13E of 5.2x).