In the week ending the first of June, US initial jobless claims edged lower, in line with expectations. Initial claims dropped by 11 000, from an upwardly revised 357 000 to 346 000, very close to the consensus, which was looking for a decline to 345 000. The less volatile four-week moving average edged slightly up, from 348 000 to 352 550. The Labour Department added that there was nothing unusual in the figures and no state data were estimated. Although there was nothing unusual in the figures, distortions are not excluded as the week under review included a holiday.
Continuing claims, which are reported with an extra week lag, surprised on the downside too. In the week ending the 25th of May, continuing claims fell by 52 000, from an upwardly revised 3 004 000 to 2 952 000, reversing a large part of the previous week’s uptick. Initial claims came out very close to expectations and continue to hover around the average seen in the last three months, while the trend in continuing claims remains downward. We believe therefore that the underlying trend in the US labour market remains positive although volatility remains high due to holidays. For now, there is no evidence of distortions related to the Oklahoma tornado.