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CNB cut all three basic rates by 75 bps; the koruna shed 30 hallers against the euro due to it

26.7.2002 10:13
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The trading was jittery since the morning, after the Bank Board meeting outcome the koruna fell from 30.260 to 30.600 and closed at 30.530. Versus the dollar the koruna also softened after the CNB announcement. Before the cut the koruna traded range bound 30.150 - 30.400, then fell to 30.640 and closed at 30.500. In our opinion the CNB fully took advantage of a room made by falling inflation and also by slower economy rebound and by strong koruna. We consider it as a right decision. The current repo rate is 3.00%, which is 25 bps below the ECB basic rate.

The CNB revised its forecast for CPI and GDP for 2002 and 2003 as expected. The central bank sees economy growing by pace of 2% -2.7% y/y in 2002 and 2.1% - 3,8% y/y in 2003. It sees end-2003 inflation rate to be in range 1.8% - 3.2% y/y and July 2003 inflation from 1.6% to 3% y/y. The CNB said that it watched koruna very closely and wouldn't comment on talk of hidden sell-off of the koruna.

Pavel Racocha, a member of the CNB Bank Board, said for HN newspaper that a new government intends to cooperate with the CNB on a middle-term budget outlook and also on solving some problems linked to koruna's exchange rate development. In face of the last facts it is clear that the koruna will stay above the level EUR/CZK 30.00 for longer time and the market will watch the CNB. Today we expect the EUR/CZK from 30.450 to 30.750 and the USD/CZK from 30.300 to 30.850.

		open	max	min	cls	open 26/7	
EUR/CZK	30.200	30.600	30.150	30.530	30.580
USD/CZK	30.150	30.640	30.150	30.500	30.560

Stepanka Kuzilkova, Investment Research, CSOB


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