The Czech koruna partly recovered
yesterday. It opened stronger at EUR/CZK
30.785 and hovered around this level most
of the day to close little weaker at 30.815.
The market was cautious to push the koruna
to any direction ahead of today’s GDP
release. Nevertheless, Thursday
atmosphere confirmed the market is not
ready for significant correction of previous
koruna’s gains.
Today GDP showed some deceleration of
economy growth in Q3. GDP posted only 3.6
% y/y rise. Shrinking trade deficit and
investments pushed the economy. Private
consumption growth fell again. Consumer’s
expenditures rose more than 5 % last year,
but now they were higher only 2 %.
Compare to previous quarter investment
only slightly decelerated to 9.7 % from 12.7
%. That’s return to the usual momentum, as
in previous two quarters investments were
raised by tax changes linked to EU
accession.
On the other hand, industry surprised
strongly on the upside. The output of the
sector rose 8.1 % y/y in October despite
lower number of working days. Thus
working-days-adjusted figure came back into
two digit zone, as it climbed to 12.6 %.
That’s 4th best result this year. Hence fresher
industry data showed no slowdown in the
economy in the final quarter.
The market showed almost no reaction to
the figures thus we expect the koruna to
develop a sideways pattern again. The
impact of the figures should be neutral,
as industry positively surprised unlike GDP.
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