Emerging markets moved higher on Tuesday and the Polish zloty recouped a portion of recent losses after the Turkish contagion which saw the unit shed over 2% against the euro, finally came to an end. Not much action on the domestic front though yesterday, with the next batch of this weeks’ barrage of eco data to be released today. Even though the economic calendar is rich today it will depend largely on the regional sentiment whether the bullish correction lasts for longer, with eyes aimed at the Turkish lira and, more importantly today, the eurodollar. We believe the data on wages will be gently positive for bonds, and hence also for the zloty, but at the same time the broader than expected C/A gap might cap the potential gains. On the global agenda the US CPI will probably get the bulk of attention. If the number comes in stronger than expected and the EUR/USD moves closer to 1.30 we could see the zloty head toward 3.85 EUR/PLN today. Otherwise consolidation in the PLN 3.90 per euro area will be the most likely scenario.
ČSOB - Investment research