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The Czech koruna eased on Wednesday as lower June inflation

The Czech koruna eased on Wednesday as lower June inflation

13.7.2006 11:03
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The Czech koruna eased on Wednesday as lower June inflation (and thus a lower chance for an early hike) and renewed weakness of the Slovak koruna put the unit under downward pressure. The Czech currency was gradually losing ground after the inflation release and downward pressure intensified when the neighboring SKK fell into trouble again. Hence, the EUR/CZK moved north and tested the 28.50 resistance. The FX intervention in favor of the SKK temporary helped the Czech koruna too but the positive impact was only limited. So, there was no recovery at the end of the session (contrary to the Slovak FX market). Meanwhile, the Czech currency once again ignored the ongoing political deadlock as either big party (conservative ODS or leftwing Soc-Dem) is not willing to make any compromise, which would allow to elect a speaker of the Parliament and possibly to approve a new government.

This morning, the koruna shrugged-off excellent May industrial output data (12.5% y/y) and continues to concentrate on the development in the region, particularly on the Slovak FX market. Beside the release of the industrial output data, the other eyecatcher will be the release of the May balance-of-payments figures. The May current account was particularly affected by the foreign trade deterioration. We also expect that the May income balance to be well in the red due to dividend payments and reinvestments. Hence, we expect (as does the market) the overall current account to turn into a deficit of CZK 12.5bn. Should the deficit come higher, the koruna could be disappointed in some way.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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