Actual (Jul): 8,4 %
Consensus: 8,4 %
Previous (Jun): 8,0 %
The unemployment rate keeps growing. There were some seasonal effects pushing the figure higher in July. However, the upward trend is evident also in the s.a. numbers. Job creation remains weak - vacancies are still decreasing. Cost cutting and layoffs continue but the process may be somewhat muted in the months to come as first positive signs have already come from industry and exports.
We expect the growth in unemployment rate to be slower than in 1H 2009, the rate should reach 9,3 % by the end of the year. We see its peak in 1Q 2010.