Better than expected PMI figures had small effect on FX market

The first day of the summer holidays was relatively calm in the CEE region. Although PMI surprised positively in the Czech Republic, Poland as well as in Hungary, the currencies reactions were subdued. The Czech koruna remained stable around 26 EUR/CZK ignoring both the PMI figure and the June budget statistic. The central state budget agency showed a deficit of 31.52 bn CZK, less than half of the value of the same period of previous year.

The better result was due to higher revenues from value added tax, which was heightened in January, and also thanks to higher income from EU funds. In Poland, the zloty firmed on
the positive PMI surprise. Nevertheless it wiped off all the gains till the end of the session and ended at 4.33 EUR/PLN. For the zloty, the meeting of the Polish central bank is key highlight of this week. The decision is scheduled for tomorrow and we bet on one more interest rate cut.

Despite well known volatility of Hungarian PMI, it´s June improvement supported the forint, which gained yesterday 0.4%. Today in the morning came further positive news from Hungary when the central statistical office released final April trade balance. It posted surplus of 717 million EUR, 17 million EUR more that preliminary figures signalled. The Hungarian current account is in surplus from the beginning of 2010 and is steadily improving. Today’s data only confirmed this trend.