INA - Poor 3Q09 results thanks to major impairment

INA reported its 3Q09 IFRS consolidated results Friday after market close. Quarterly net income arrived at a loss of HRK 675m versus HRK 1,079m profit reported for 2Q09 and the loss of HRK 441m in 3Q08. The loss was primarily related to HRK 658m impairment and field abandonment provisions. Even without the negative one offs, the quarterly net results would have come in red, a negative surprise for the market which hoped a substantial improvement in upstream. We expect a negative market reaction to the result.

Upstream EBIT arrived at a loss of HRK 193m (versus HRK 1,185m in 2Q09 and HRK 1,045m in 3Q08) significantly below our estimate of HRK 529m. The main reason for the big difference is HRK 675 million provisioning on for field abandonment, which was an unexpected item. One-off adjusted upstream EBIT stands at HRK 482m, still a weak number. The average hydrocarbon production fell by 3.0% q/q and 5.1% y/y to 53.1Mbpd mainly due to the declining gas production on INA’s on-shore fields (-8.4 q/q) and in Syria (-5.7 q/q). The average realized price for crude amounted to US$ 47.3/bbl (-2.1% q/q), as the increase in average realized crude prices (+22.0% q/q) were not able to compensate for the significantly lower gas quotations. Average production cost of crude came at US$ 12.3/bbl, up 8.6% q/q, also weighting on the upstream margins. Overall, the segment was hit by lower volumes, worse-than-expected prices and higher production costs.

Downstream EBIT delivered a loss of HRK 300m versus a loss of HRK 43m in 2Q09 and a loss of HRK 223m in 3Q08. Our estimate of HRK-233m fell short of the reported figure by 28.7% mostly due to a one-off impairment cost of HRK 44m. Weaker performance q/q clearly reflects the significantly lower inventory gains (HRK 30m in 3Q09 versus HRK 172m in 2Q09). Excluding impairment and inventory revaluation effect, downstream EBIT remained almost flat (HRK-227m in 3Q09 versus HRK-215m in 2Q09) reflecting lingering weakness of refining fundamentals. Refining throughput came in at 1,321kt (+10.0% q/q, +12.5% y/y) compared to our estimate of 1,050kt. As a result, effective refining margin (excluding one-offs) averaged US$-7.55/bbl in 3Q09 versus US$-4.53/bbl in 2Q09 and US$ 1.87/bbl in the same quarter last year.

Retail EBIT delivered a loss of HRK 51m versus a gain of HRK 7m in 2Q09 and a profit of HRK 16m in 3Q08 predominantly as a result of HRK 125m unexpected one-offs. The one-off adjusted EBIT stands at HRK 74m in the period as the company were able to increase its sales volumes by 22.7% q/q and improve its margins on fuel products. The clean figure came 57.9% above our estimate of HRK 47m.

Financials line came in at HRK 176m, down 65.6% q/q but versus a loss of HRK 662m last year mostly due to the gain on FX-denominated loan revaluation.

INA: IFRS consolidated quarterly P&L